Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
